A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
